ชื่อผู้นิพนธ์ นายอดุลย์ กล้าขยัน
ABSTRACT
Hemorrhagic fever is regarded as an important public health problem of Thailand. The number of hemorrhagic fever patients increases year. Changwat Kalasin in 2001 had a rate of 115.03 patients per population of 100,000 people and in 2002 had a rate of 222.80 patients per population of 100,000. Although the medical personnel and public health agencies have helped one another prevent and control hemorrhagic fever, it has not been so successful as it should be because at present there are various factors leading to the widespread of hemorrhagic fever.
The purposes of this study were to examine the influences of environmental factors and hemorrhagic fever occurrences, and to construct an area model at risk of hemorrhagic fever occurrences of Changwat Kalasin. This study applied the geographic information system using secondary data comprising patient data. The data involved ages, seasons of sickness, and kinds of disease; collected from a total of 34, 36 patients during 2001-2005. There patients were divided into 1,903 dengue fever patients, 2,603 dengue hemorrhagic fever patients, and 130 dengue shock syndrome patients. The study also used data concerning 9 risk factors of hemorrhagic fever occurrence. A questionnaire was used for collecting data. The descriptive statistics used were percentage, mean, and standard deviation. The analytical statistic used for analysis of the data was multinomial logistic regression analysis.
The results of the study revealed the following. The environmental factors related to hemorrrhagic fever occurrences at the level of significance (p<> occurrences at 1.7-2.0 times ; the rainfalls 232.0-300.5 millimeters had results of in disease occurrences at 1.6 times ; the number of water sources of less than 89 sources could result in disease occurrences at 1.6 times ; and the age group of less than 12 years had 0.7 times of disease occurrences respectively . The power of hemorrhagic fever occurrence prediction was at 60.7 percent. And when the environmental factors were used to construct the area model at risk of disease occurrences by applying the geographic information system from all the 135 tambon, it was found that one tambon at a high level of risk of disease occurrence was Tambon Lao Oi, 112 tambon were at a medium level of risk of disease occurrence, and 22 tambon were at a low level of risk of disease occurrence.
In conclusion, most of the people living in Changwat Kalasin had opportunities at risk of becoming sick from hemorrhagic fever because the area model of risk of disease occurrences by applying the geographic information system provided each tambon of Changwat Kalasin mostly in the area at risk of hemorrhagic fever occurrences at a medium level. Therefore, it is extremely necessary for the people to protect themselves in every way from mosquito-bites. They would have no opportunity to get virus which causes hemorrhagic fever in the future.
Keywords : Geographic information system, Hemorrhagic fever
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